Reply from Nagaraj - Booming Bihar: Fact or Fiction? - Article by R. Nagaraj

Friends,
All of had various kinds of reaction on reading the articles published by Mr. R. Nagaraj be it published in the Business Standard (http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/r-nagaraj-demystifying-bihar%5Cs-growth/387412/) or on Sify (http://business.rediff.com/column/2010/mar/04/guest-how-real-is-bihars-growth-story.htm) or the article written by Mr. Nagaraj on the site  epw.in : Booming Bihar: Fact or Fiction?


Many of us were surprised and agreed that his reaction was being very myopic and did not probably represent the complete truth or the sentiments of people on here.

Like many other, I had also published my views in myblog  article Booming Bihar: Fact or Fiction? - Article by R. Nagaraj . I had also marked a copy ot Mr. Nagaraj's email address. Subsequently I received a reply from Mr. Nagaraj and I am posting it below for everyone to read.




---------- Forwarded message ----------

From: nag@igidr.ac.in
Date: Sun, Mar 7, 2010 at 9:20 PM
Subject: Re: Booming Bihar: Fact or Fiction? - ...
To: Prashant prashantrbe@gmail.com

Dear Mr. Prashant,
Thank you very much for your comments and questions. Let me reiterate the following:


1. My comment on Bihar was restricted to the hype of 11% growth, which seems suspect - given the fragility of the official statistics. I am sure you would agree that any rigorous analysis of social and economic issues should start with careful examination of facts.

2. The supposed growth is not broad based, but restricted to an exceptional growth in construction, which seems suspicious given the methodological problems in estimating value added in this sector.

3. While the government's publicity material apparently makes many tall claims, information contained in the official web site of the concerned department does not seem to fully support the claims, therefore, the doubts I had expressed.

4. It needs to be appreciated that Bihar was not stagnating prior to 2004, as many seem to believe. Economic growth during the last decade was slightly lower than the national average, with considerable yearly fluctuation (as I have shown). The growth rate seems to have improved after 2004, but the extent of improvement is open to debate (given the conflicting numbers, as I have shown).

5. My questioning of the hype is not meant to disregard the progress that Bihar seems to have made in recent years, which are commendable. In fact, I have said, in my epw piece, that there are some lessons here for the rest of the nation.

I hope the clarification helps.

Sincerely
R Nagaraj

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I had also raised some questions to him and echoed my views in a subsequent reply to his email. I am sharing this information as it matches the views and thoughts of many Bihari people.
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---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Prashant prashantrbe@gmail.com
Date: Mon, Mar 8, 2010 at 3:09 PM
Subject: Re: Booming Bihar: Fact or Fiction? - ...
To: "nag@igidr.ac.in" nag@igidr.ac.in


Dear Mr. Nagaraj,
Thank you for your prompt response.


Can you please provide me the links of the official websites which you have referred to in your email?


I appreciate the fact that you are taking on the role of carrying out the checks and balances for a government which is claiming substantially good statistics which could be completely or partially correct. However it is good to have accomplished and seasoned people who can raise the red flag which will keep the government on its toes.


At the same time, it requires other people to highlight the good and the bad happenings for a state and thus others can follow. This is what I am trying to do.


You have mentioned that there was economic growth prior to 2004 and that Bihar was not stagnating. You are right and economic growth was happening. But was this growth a result of focused efforts or was just a by product of running a state.. Taat economic growth was not resulting in any change for the people in Bihar or their lifestyle , as far as I can fathom. I am sure you would be aware that during Rabri Devi's 5 year rule, the state did not even have a state budget and all the expenses were passed on a "vote on account". In such a situation you would hardly expect any work was done for Bihar's betterment. Nothing was done for the upliftment of the people as Lallu Prasad and gang would have lost their support base. Therefore they kept the status quo as long as they could.


You will appreciate that the caste system is deeply rooted in the Bihar society. This has created many a hurdles in the the progress of Bihar. The only way one can reduce the caste differences and thus minimize the growth hurdles is by educating people. This was never an apparent focus area for Lallu and team. Atleast Nitish understands the benefits of education and is trying to do his bit in that direction, be it the appointment of 2,00,000 teachers on a contract basis or by re-building the dilapidated school infrastructure. Similarly Nitish's team has done a lot of things which are even acknowledged by the people at the grass root level (Improving security, law and order, better road infrastructure, tourism, etc). None of these were ever done or atleast no outcomes were visible during the 15 years of RJD rule.


We are very hopeful that Nitish will continue bringing the turn around. However, the conditions in the past so many years were so sad that majority of people from Bihar had to go out looking for labor jobs etc outside the state. Thus Biharis have offen been the subject of ridicule across India: You already know whats happening in Mumbai / Maharashtra with the MNS thing, etc.


However people have got hope now and the hope is that Nitish can turn around the state so that people do not have to leave the state looking out for jobs as much as they do now. I think Nitish has done a fairly large amount of work as compared to the previous regimes which has given people hope. However, as you have pointed out, there is hardly any self-sustaining work that has happened which can continue irrespective of the political situation in the state. Many of us believe that the base is made and now is the time to develop the state by building industries, improving the agriculture, etc which is the only way to improve the living of people in the state. We have to give Nitish a chance because he appears to be the best bet the people of Bihar have. The trust on Lallu and team is zero and people are confident that things will go back to the old ways if they return. (I am myself a native of Bihar staying in Mumbai and the last time I went to my village during Rabri's rule, I could stay at my own house for less than a day. I was convinced by many a neighbours that if I stayed longer my whole family would get kidnapped as my father is a very successful man coming from a small village in Bihar. Today my parents go and stay there for months together without any untoward things happening ).


I also find Nitish is a responsive man and many of my posts go to his email box too. I have received responses and actions also based on these posts which in itself is a big thing (coming from a politician of a state like Bihar). One such actions detail can be found at : Nitish Kumar 2.0 - - - Bureaucracy. However there is still a lot to be done and I think it will taken another 5-10 years of focus before the growth becomes self propelled.


So I, like many others, try to play the roles of keeping the checks and balances by writing about some of the things once in a while. However I am glad that eminent personalities like yourself are also taking interest in Bihar. I would appreciate if you will continue to keep track of Bihar and come up with your qualified comments and suggestions from time to time that will guide the people and government of Bihar.


Regards
Prashant

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---------- Forwarded message ----------

From: Ashok Sharma
Date: Wed, Mar 10, 2010 at 8:50 PM
Subject: Re:  Comment on Bihar GDP growth figures

Dear Prashant,
Thanks for sharing the response of Mr Nagaraj. His intention may be noble but the question remains unanswered "Why everyone get over excited by anything related to Bihar?".

The data is prepared by CSO which is not working on the payrole of Bihar Gov. Did Mr Nagaraj shared his apprehensions with CSO?

When was the last time we came across such article on any other state?? Why media ignored the per capita allotment to Bihar in 5-year plans since Independence.


There is no denying that there are many well wishers who want Bihar to succeed by providing critical feedback but in reality too much negative media campaign has hurt bihar's image so bad that


Bihar is still struggling to come back on its own term.

There was front page title in India today when I was in college. The title was - "The good , The bad and Bihar". Now how disgusting is that. We Biharis never realized that each and every negative campaign has given reasons to others that today .... Koi bhi sadak chap bihari ko gali de ke chala jata hai..and we bihari's ask ourselves.. "why me??".


We all know that we have problems...what bothers me is that when people get over excited and start blabbering about Bihar as if there is no one to give them befitting reply.

We should not take any more BS from anyone. BTW, Constructive feedback is always welcome :).

Ashok

Booming Bihar: Fact or Fiction? - Article by R. Nagaraj

Interesting! The recent growth stories of Bihar have prompted many eminent economists, sociologists and professors to analyse and present their views of this sudden hype about Bihar.

One such article has been written by Mr. R. Nagaraj (nagaraj@igidr.ac.in) from the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai. He was assisted by Mr. Andaleeb Rahman (andaleeb@igidr.ac.in), a research student at the same institute.

Mr. Nagaraj has taken a critical view of the recent growth story, and is skeptical of the changes that have been talked about in the media recently. He has highlighted that the GDP growth in Bihar has primarily resulted from government spending on road construction which to quite an extent is true as construction accounted for over 35% of Bihar's GDP growth in the last 5 years. He is  however skeptical of the sustenance of such growth. He has also highlighted that the primary sector of agriculture has hardly shown any growth and so is the case of Industrialization.

I think these are valid points raised by Mr. Nagarajan when he is highlighting that government spending on construction without growth in agriculture and industries, cannot sustain an increasing GDP and hence growth will not be sustainable. While Mr. Nitish Kumar is trying to attract investments into the state and we have seen projects being approved but not yet implemented due to various reasons, but Mr. Nagaraj's article is a good highlighter to Mr. Nitish Kumar and team to take note.

Nitish Kumar ji, If you did not know about the above already, you know it now. Hopefully you will strengthen the resolve and overcome these challenges by being able to attract more investments and public/private spending in the state.

That said, there are various sections of Mr. Nagaraj's article and guest speak which I do not concur with. Some of my reasons for not agreeing are as follows

1. Mr. Nagaraj has for the most part not substantiated his writing by relevant references to the sources of the  data he has used, which would have done justice to his statements.
2. The data released in the latest economic of Bihar 2009-10 (Bihar Economic Survey 2009-10) states that besides construction, Communications accounted for 17.68% of Bihar's GDP growth in last 5 years. Similarly trade, hotel and restaurants accounted for 17.71% of Bihar's GDP. However Mr. Nagaraj doesn't seem to address this in his article.
3. It appeared to me that Mr. Nagaraj has not been tracking the developments in Bihar and was inspired to make his analysis/study after the media hype created on the Bihar growth story in the last 2 months.

Some interesting happenings in Bihar which has been ignored by Mr. Nagaraj when writing this article are

1. Tourism which has picked up in Bihar. The number of tourists visiting Bihar has multiplied 5 times the as compared to the number of tourists 5 years back (Tourism picking up in Bihar). Why has tourism picked up? What has been done to improve tourism?
2. The increased sales of vehicles in Bihar: Motor vehicle sales in Bihar has grown 4 times in the last 4 years (Signs of progress). What has prompted people to buy more vehicles?
3. Growing air traffic from Patna (Flights of prosperity). Why are more flights landing into Bihar? Why are chartered plane operators starting operations in Bihar?
4. New teacher appointments : More than 2 lakh new teachers were appointed. Similarly investments are being made in improving school infrastructure.
5. Public health services improving: More than 80,000  deliveries per month happen in PHC as compared to about 5000 about 5 years back. This information is available in the Progress report 2008.
6. Obviously Mr. Nagaraj has apparently not read the Progress Report's released by the Bihar government which would have given a better view of why everyone is euphoric about the changes being brought into Bihar. (Progress Report 2008 and Progress Report 2009)
7. A compilation of various changes in Bihar are also listed in this article : Bihar Growth Statistics and Image Management which highlights other actions and results.
8. Some more information worth nothing in the Times of India article Bihar - A Growth Story - TOI - Mumbai Edition which are possibly ingored when this article was written.

I think Mr. Nagaraj's article in all earnest has highlighted some of the challenges that will come in the way of Bihar's growth if requisite action is not taken. But his article has also taken a very myopic view of the situation in Bihar and I dont think it does justice to the efforts being put in by various people in turning around a state which till sometime back was considered a Bimaru state, a failed state and a state that no one talked about.

Maybe I am wrong and I have missed out important aspects. I would love it if Mr. Nagaraj would provide his view about my article and substantiate his statement. Hence I am marking a copy of this article to Mr. Nagaraj and look forward to his response.

Mr. Nagaraj's article can be read at Booming Bihar: Fact or Fiction? and his guest speak can be read at R Nagaraj: Demystifying Bihar's Growth

- Prashant